I would suggest you slightly under estimated the incubation time maybe? If the world health leaders are say the peak is around April 15 you're graph should be pulled back a little and I do NOT expect death rates to go that high. Not with the death rates today.
Steve:
You do understand that you are comparing apples (seasonal flu with no shutdown of economy) with oranges (CV with virtual shutdown of economy).
Tracking death rates while in the midst of an economic shutdown and many more open cases than resolved ones just does not make a whole lot of sense to me.
In addition, some parts of the US are in a virtual exponential growth rate while other parts (WA state, for example) have shown success with mitigation.
Sometimes numbers just don’t tell you much....
However, allow me to point something out to you:
In the graph, generated on the 31, the date I posted the Sweden comments (see above), if you look at April 2 (squint your eyes), you will see the number 292 underneath 2-Apr.
Keep the projected number 292 in your mind as you go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries. Once you're there, scroll down until you find Sweden. Btw, the numbers you are seeing, if you go there now, are for today, April 2. Look in the total deaths column. There you will find the number 308.
292 projected vs 308 actual is a pretty accurate projection, I'd say.