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There is way, way too much focus on the day to day numbers.

Reporting requirements have changed a bunch of times in MA that I am aware of. Times change. Reporting structures have changed.

There are 10 AM reporting cut off for the state. There are federal reporting time at 5 pm. There are internal reporting times.

Each has differences and are sent differently.

Pick a reporting site. Stick with it. You will still get the “jist” of the status.

Italy is a really good source of CV leading information. They are around 8 days ahead of the US (from dates of first reported CV deaths). They are 9 hrs ahead of those of us in Calif, so we can pull up their final daily tallies around noon time.

As usual, the question is when does the peak deaths occur? And, if we look to Italy, it appears they are currently bouncing around a plateau/top. If this trend holds up, then we should expect a peak in the US around Easter.

Here are the last 17 days totals in Italy vs US net NY. (US: 8 days actual, 9 days projected based on ratio/lag with Italy event to date.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy