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To: DEPcom
I think that number 100,000 to 200,000 was over two month period with the flatten curve.

Yes, and I believe the highest number on their graph was around 240,000. I'm running a curve of my own, call it not totally trusting of government numbers. My curve predicted 1,000 deaths for today, several days ago - it just about nailed that.

Naturally, the further out the date, the less accurate projections are. My projection, based on my ND/TD calculations only (no other factors included), is still showing 100,000 deaths around 15 April - I update it daily. Many factors will affect that projection. The largest factor, hopefully, will be a cure soon.

Government and universities have vastly smarter people, greater resources and much more data access than I, or others here do. That's why they can predict peaks and I can't. My 200k total is based on their timing of a peak. I and a few others here on FR, still like to run the numbers for ourselves though.

And some of our "back of the napkin" calculations have been running pretty close to what the government task force is putting out.

All numbers are greatly subject to unknown factors and real world developments - with that in mind, one has to go with the best data available in making plans for how we're going to personally deal with this plaque - as POTUS tagged it yesterday.

Coming weeks may make everything until now seem like a picnic. The next few weeks could be brutal for everyone. Much more so on those we depend upon for our supplies and services - it will help to gather what we need now, without excess, to lessen the burden on those above in coming weeks.

179 posted on 04/01/2020 1:29:08 PM PDT by amorphous
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To: amorphous

“All numbers are greatly subject to unknown factors and real world developments “

We could come out with a good treatment. The US manufactures come through with a huge amount of ventilators.

A lot of variables. I am hoping we maintain the social distancing.


200 posted on 04/01/2020 1:51:53 PM PDT by DEPcom
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To: amorphous

Do you know where I can download the charts the White House at that briefing? Been looking for them with no luck.


421 posted on 04/01/2020 7:01:41 PM PDT by DEPcom
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