[semantic]

Is it over when IHME says it's over? You know this is the model that Birx/Fauci are using to advise Trump, right? The one Trump referenced on Sun, 3/29 that projected 4/15 as the peak, and 120-150k as total US CV fatalities?

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Are you sad that with an update of just two days actuals, their revised projection is now 84k? I predict that with another 5-7 days of actuals, the cumulative total projected will drop below 50k.

Then what will you do? Run another dual FR/twitter/FB media campaign?

[cgbg]

Everybody can wait five to seven days for actual numbers...

Between that and the antibody tests we will have a much better picture very soon—no need to debate something that will be settled soon enough...

[calenel]

“Then what will you do? Run another dual FR/twitter/FB media campaign?”

What’s wrong with you?

[kabar]

Spot on. The IHME model is a movable feast. It is going to change significantly for many reasons. NYC is an outlier for many reasons. Density of population, use of mass transit, large Chinese population, poor leadership, etc.