In modeling, they consider Population Density and spread within Density.
When I read that the original model from London did not take anything but population into consideration when they made predictions for countries around the world ... working mostly with data from China and Italy, I could not believe it.
ME: Population density certainly has a lot to do with it. A person living in a rural section of a low density state comes into contact with very few people every day. In NYC, a person who takes the subway touches things that hundreds (maybe thousands) of people have touched.
me: So much of this is science or mathematical modeling. Get those political "news" people out of there and bring in some scientists or mathematicians to ask questions.