The mitigation measures (and the time lag to hospitalization of severe cases) have made it really difficult to figure out how many “real” cases are out there—but I think your “1%” is in the ballpark.
With no mitigation that figure would double every three days.
If you figure the mitigation we have now is 75% effective nationwide, that would lower the doubling rate to once every nine days.
So, we would be looking at 2% by April 8.
With more of the country shut down by that time, the doubling rate could itself be cut in half again, so say 3% by April 17.
The problem is that once the restrictions are lifted, the virus will “jump out of the box” from a larger initial number, causing real havoc in a hurry...
That is the “second wave” that I worry about....
Well, all but the most frail seem to survive it- if the healthcare system can provide the needed treatment.
Yeah there are a few exceptions. Well publicized ones (”man bites dog”).
“Herd immunity” for those not at risk, effective treatment... the flubros may get the last laugh- if they ignore the costs, which they will.