Fearmongers try to compare mortality to "cases" to derive a high 2-3% ratio. Flubros try to use total population vs fatalities to drive the per capita ratio to insignificance. Both of course are wrong. The only valid means of testing growth projections and estimated total fatalities is by comparing *actual infections* - at specific points in time - to resolution (recovery/death).
Anybody recognize the problem? Yep, it's impossible to know the actual levels of infection - either today, 5 days ago, or 5 days from now (no, cases doesn't provide that information). So, lacking that information, you would need to estimate it based on statistically valid sample sizes - typically around 1,000. Now, how are gonna do that?
Answer - you ain't gonna do that. You think the gov't is going to randomly select 1k people each day from around the country, come to the door and demand a sample? LOL But with some sophisticated math, and a lot of massaging, you might very well be able to back into a sample size from the actual number of cases.
And that, my dear readers, is exactly what Birx, Fauci and team have done. They have a very high level of confidence based on US history going back 2-3 weeks. 2 weeks ago (at the time of the emergency order) it was still a WAG, but now they're acting like they know the number. They are so confident in this target that they convinced Trump to keep the country shut down for another 4 weeks. That's takes a very high degree of certainty. And that only comes from having an excellent picture of the battlefield.
So, what are the projected outcomes? You heard Trump summarize: peak day April 15 (around 15k daily deaths), aspiration total 150k deaths. Once you have that number, then everything else essentially becomes noise. Forget the other countries, forget the alarming number of "cases" reported. Just track actual fatality to the chart below.
(Multiply cum total x3) 