On what planet does death rate statistically have to increase?
Deaths are a snapshot of infections (actual infections, including both tested and untested) that on average started 23.5 days ago.
In order for the mortality rate to increase, that would mean the denominator (# of infections) would have to have either been over counted in the past, OR would have to grow slower proportionately to the numerator (# of deaths) in the future, despite # of tests performed accelerating faster than both.
Or do you think that the # of deaths has been severely undercounted???
Honestly, the degree of mathematical illiteracy in this country is staggering.
Rather than insult, maybe ask him to explain. He is simply referring to Case Fatality Rate, which is rather simply calculated as Fatalities/Cases. Most cases have not “resolved”, and it is clear that not all remaining patients will survive. Some of them will succumb and the CFR will rise, at least among THESE cases. Hopefully, with improved treatment, we will do better in the future.
Weeks ago people proclaimed South Korea’s 0.7% CFR as “the real CFR” as opposed to the 2% to 3.4% claimed by various sources, even though only 1/4th of their cases had resolved. Some (mathematically illiterate) people even claimed it would go down. Now that cases are resolving, SK’s CFR has exceeded 1.5%, and is trending to reach about 2.4%.
Oh and “Go Raiders”. Looking forward to building some Las Vegas weekends around a few games.