I'm getting encouraged by apparent progress in developing treatments for the Wuhan Virus. Those can't halt the epidemic but they can reduce fatalities, and hopefully also long-term medical consequences to survivors such as permanent lung damage.
My initial prediction of two million American dead (of 110 million American victims) was slashed in half by the Diamond Princess testing of all on board showing that at least half of victims are asymptomatic. If effective treatments are widely available by October, I'd slash that in half again to 500,000.
And a cure by October dramatically enhances the effects of social distancing by everyone, and social isolation by the elderly and those with comorbidities, It is difficult to keep those going for a full year. Six months is doable. That could slash fatalities by half again to 250,000.
So my rough guess of 250,000 dead with a cure by October, and yours of 200,000 without a cure, are not that far apart even given our very different premises.
If the hydroxychloroquine cocktail treatment is as effective as Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko claims it to be, I will lower my number to 10,000 or less, provided; 1. above is true, AND 2. hospitals nationwide begin this treatment of all patients on or before 1 April. If I were POTUS, I'd order all our fighter aircraft to distribute with engines at full military power settings to our more than 4,000 hospitals nationwide, just as soon as I could get some sort of confirmation it works. Might even put some ol' F-105s back in service to help out. Church bells would be set in motion from all the sonic booms throughout this land...:)
