[Disestablishmentarian]

New Equation for Kung Flu Growth in U.S.

The GOOD NEWS is that my OLD exponential growth function is BROKEN.

The BAD NEWS is that I found another good fit for the data since March 22, and it is also exponential though at a lower rate.

ONE TIME ONLY, I am posting with both equations. Tomorrow I will just show the new one.

The "Reduced Exponential Cases" would hit 1 million cases by April 6th ... unless it too breaks.

Will be looking for the new ("Reduced") equation to break, ASAP!

United States COVID-19 Confirmed Cases	
		
Date       	 Daily	Total	Reduced	        Original
	         Growth	Cases	Exponential 	Exponential 
	         Actual	Actual	Cases          	Cases
3/14/2020		 2,717  		 2,717 
3/15/2020	 761 	 3,478  		 3,631 
3/16/2020	 1,167 	 4,645  		 4,904 
3/17/2020	 1,717 	 6,362 	        	 6,696 
3/18/2020	 1,407 	 7,769  	     	 9,249 
3/19/2020	 5,911 	 13,680 		 12,926 
3/20/2020	 5,605 	 19,285 		 18,290 
3/21/2020	 7,462 	 26,747 		 26,211 
3/22/2020	 8,478 	 35,225  35,225 	 38,060 
3/23/2020	 11,107  46,332  44,031 	 56,027 
3/24/2020	 8,816 	 55,148  55,039 	 83,654 
3/25/2020	 13,870  69,018  68,799 	 126,753 
3/26/2020	 16,635  85,653  85,999 	 195,004 
3/27/2020	 19,363  105,016 107,498 	 304,781 
3/28/2020		 . 	 134,373 	 484,221 
3/29/2020		 . 	 167,966 	 782,474 
3/30/2020		 . 	 209,957 	 1,286,881 
3/31/2020		 . 	 262,447 	 2,155,400 
4/1/2020		 . 	 328,058 	
4/2/2020		 . 	 410,073 	
4/3/2020		 . 	 512,591 	
4/4/2020		 . 	 640,739 	
4/5/2020		 . 	 800,924 	
4/6/2020		 . 	 1,001,155 	

[Disestablishmentarian]

Oops!

Pinging a few people to #745: Tonight’s Kung Flu data.

Cheers!

[thinden]

Thanx for data spread

[WildHighlander57]

ThankQ for your analysis!

Disestablishmentarian wrote:

“New Equation for Kung Flu Growth in U.S.
The GOOD NEWS is that my OLD exponential growth function is BROKEN.
The BAD NEWS is that I found another good fit for the data since March 22, and it is also exponential though at a lower rate.

ONE TIME ONLY, I am posting with both equations. Tomorrow I will just show the new one.

The “Reduced Exponential Cases” would hit 1 million cases by April 6th ... unless it too breaks.

(Table)
“

[numberonepal]

Well done.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

THANK YOU my goodness this site has become almost unbearable with the doom and gloom!!!

[Tobias Grimsley]

Thanks Dis, about 2800 new cases couple days in a row

Look8ng forward to see today’s numbers later on