“In the end I suspect meds will be discovered to not really be a part of it. 99.3% will recover.”
In SK and on the DP it is mathematically impossible to achieve those results, even though in each case the entire resources of a whole country were marshalled to fight their respective outbreaks.
DP will likely be around 2% (hopefully less, but it is at 1.7% with a hundred cases left to resolve). SK has deaths at a higher rate than they are finding new cases, so their current 1.4% is certainly going to rise and will likely approach 2% as well.
Then there is anyplace that has a HCS collapse. Wuhan, Madrid, Milan, NYC, NO, LA...
Italy has a 10% DCR. That’s their CFR if you assume everybody else that is unresolved lives. Care to offer an estimate of the percentage that actually do? In order to get to a 0.7% CFR Italy would have to find about 1.1 million new cases and have all of them survive. Never gonna happen.
This ain’t no flu.
But it ain’t 1918, neither.