Testing of currently infected patients does provide, as I said, and upper bound measure on people currently infected with the virus. If you test 1000 people and 90% of them don't have COVID-19 you have established that for that particular sample, at that point in time, 90% of the population represented by the sample does not have COVID-19. It is no different than making 1000 phone calls and asking "who are you going to vote for" except that the test doesn't lie.
There is some bias in the sample set since people who think they should get tested are not a random population sample, but they provide an upper bound limit in spite of them not being a random sample.
Your theory depends on some strange, and unsupported belief that COVID-19 actually already ran through the Seattle area last year, and that a huge number of people have already had it. And that somehow, that huge epidemic has already ended in the area since 90% of tested people don't have the virus.
Your theory also requires that current exponential growth rates of cases did not appear the first time the epidemic occurred last year, and now they are appearing. How exactly would that work? In fact, under your hypothesis, Seattle is not on the leading edge of the epidemic curve, so the number of cases should be decreasing daily.
I doubt anything I have to say will change you mind, so enjoy your day.
You wanting to explain the basics to me is almost laughable... I don’t have enough time to counter your nonsense completely right now, but here is a start.
Supposedly patient zero in China came down with it on November 17. By the end of December we found out that a virus that causes symptoms in less than half of those infected and very light symptoms in another 30% of people was already wreaking havoc in Wuhan China. The official timeline provided by the Chinese still does not add up. President Trump almost immediately issued his “travel ban”.
We have half a million recent Chinese immigrants in Eastern King County many of them visit China frequently. Over 10,000 returned to the King County after the travel ban by flying to Vancouver International instead of SeaTac.
What I have said repeatedly is that tens of thousands of people infected with this highly contagious virus were returning from China during December and January and as a result the virus has going around this community now for over 3 months. This is not an assumption. We know that most of the people who suffer from no or few symptoms recover and test negative within a fairly short period of time. Your assumption that people who had the virus earlier in the year and recovered would still be testing positive is absolutely FALSE, so no 90% testing negative here is not meaningful. We would only know the actual numbers when tests looking for the antibodies start to become available.
We had people who tested positive early on here who had no direct contact with people who had recently visited China which proved that we already had community spread months ago. Don’t argue with me, argue with the doctors and epidemiologists who first discovered this.
Your conclusions are based on incomplete information combined with logical fallacies that contradict the observations of healthcare professionals. In due time the complete story will trickle to the surface.