[kabar]

The 85,594 are confirmed cases. We don't have enough data to make an informed estimate of the number of asymptomatic and unreported cases.

How did you arrive at a 41% mortality rate?

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

[Svartalfiar]

The 85,594 are confirmed cases. We don't have enough data to make an informed estimate of the number of asymptomatic and unreported cases.

True, which is why I included the second set of numbers accounting for 20% of cases going undiscovered. The China study can't be trusted, but even that revised their estimate from 86% down to 35%. A study on the cruise ship puts the number at 17.9%. Another study I saw said I think 14-16%. So I figured 20% is a decent, somewhat accurate number to use.


How did you arrive at a 41% mortality rate?

Math. 1300 deaths and 1868 recoveries mean you have 3168 cases with a known outcome. Out of those, 1300 deaths is 41%. That number will come down as more cases resolve, since recoveries lag deaths, and it's pretty obvious based on other countries farther along that the ultimate CFR is much lower, somewhere between 1% and 5%. Your other method of estimating CFR is to take current deaths and compare that to total cases at a given time ago equal to the length of the infection resolution time, but we don't know what that is, so it's hard to be accurate. I've seen medical estimates anywhere from ten days to nearly a month (28 days) for full case resolution. Obviously those two numbers will give a HUGE range of possible results.