The statistical universes are too small, or the proportion of resolved cases is too small. CCP-19 kills the weak fast and then picks off a steady stream as the cases resolve.
China has the end data from Wuhan, or could if they have been brave enough to open all those apartment buildings they welded closed.
DP is close to done but there is still space for the thing to go to as much as 16% or stay at 1.4%. Probably gonna get close to 2% based on current trends.
Korea still has more than half its cases outstanding.
Each of the above has either completely or significantly contained its outbreak.
Nobody else has enough cases, honest reporting or anything approaching containment to be a valid source. In some cases, all three are lacking. Maybe Singapore, but even they still have community spread. And cases take so long to resolve on average.
Anyway, that’s my view
Thank you for your thoughtful reply.
Regarding the proportion of resolved cases being too small... Hmmm... I’m going to have to think about that.
You’re right that it seems to kill the weak fast and then picks off a steady stream as the cases resolve. The effect that will have on the final numbers won’t be known until, well, when the pandemic is over. That’s the nature of the Case Fatality Rate. However, it’s still worth looking at the CFR while the pandemic is underway. And I do believe that 3,000 closed cases is enough to make it worth looking at that number.
But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that there are 10 times as many closed cases in the U.S. as have been reported, and that all of them fall in the “recovered” column. Then the math becomes, with up-to-the-minute numbers from Worldometers:
1100 / (1100 + 18,630) = 5.6%
That’s a pretty high fatality rate. Higher for sure, than the seasonal flu.