As an aside, here's a tip about working with experienced people who only slightly let on who they are (aka "sandbagging"). One would think that a non-medical person would pause for at lease a moment to reconsider attacking a subject matter expert ie medical doctor. Not only an MD, but one with experience treating regional epidemics and clinical field studies. Hey, but what do I know?
Anyway, I leave you to it. In the meantime, anyone curious about why NY has blown up? Here's why - as of day 11, they are 5x where Italy was, and 9x where the US was (in total) on their respective 11th days after the first recorded death. For the alarmists, this is wonderful news, because it validates their predictions of doom. For practical people, they see a specific region like NY representing 40% of all US deaths as a target for emergency resources & scaling.
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA 330.4 NY v IT NY 19.5 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 1 2/21/2020 1 1 1.0 2/29/2020 1 1 2.0 3/14/2020 2 2 2 2/22/2020 2 100.0% 1 1.0 3/1/2020 2 100.0% 1 1.5 3/15/2020 3 50.0% 1 3 2/23/2020 3 50.0% 1 0.5 3/2/2020 6 200.0% 4 2.3 3/16/2020 7 133.3% 4 4 2/24/2020 7 133.3% 4 0.8 3/3/2020 9 50.0% 3 1.7 3/17/2020 12 71.4% 5 5 2/25/2020 10 42.9% 3 0.8 3/4/2020 12 33.3% 3 1.6 3/18/2020 16 33.3% 4 6 2/26/2020 12 20.0% 2 0.9 3/5/2020 14 16.7% 2 3.2 3/19/2020 38 137.5% 22 7 2/27/2020 17 41.7% 5 0.9 3/6/2020 18 28.6% 4 2.7 3/20/2020 46 21.1% 8 8 2/28/2020 21 23.5% 4 1.1 3/7/2020 19 5.6% 1 2.8 3/21/2020 58 26.1% 12 9 2/29/2020 29 38.1% 8 1.3 3/8/2020 22 15.8% 3 2.6 3/22/2020 76 31.0% 18 10 3/1/2020 34 17.2% 5 1.3 3/9/2020 26 18.2% 4 4.6 3/23/2020 157 106.6% 81 11 3/2/2020 52 52.9% 18 1.7 3/10/2020 31 19.2% 5 5.2 3/24/2020 271 72.6% 114 Gross differential 3.2 5.2 Population differential 5.5 32.2% Per capita differential 17.5 16.1 Growth rate Growth rate 25 Days 35.94% 29.73% 11 Days 62.27% 34 Days 30.01% 25.64% 34 33.72% Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
Thanks so much for you unceasing efforts at helping us understand this disease. I have been just waiting to see the #new deaths plateau. Haven’t been following actual numbers or other things much.
I posted "Apples!", and your "good doctor" jumped on the thread in less than two minutes without viewing the video, and started quacking about "Oranges!".
I'm glad his "Oranges!" are important to him, but the entire thread is about "Apples!", not "Oranges!".
It's about a risk versus benefit scenario, not about "Oranges!".
Risk 1: drowning in your own snot while waiting for a five-day, $1000 test to get back from the bureaucracy, OR
Risk 2: paying $20 to lay hands on the 5-day regimen meds that doctors themselves are securing for them and theirs. You may get diarrhea, BTW. So there is that...
He was informed of this by multiple posters, yet still continues to vent "Oranges!" gas on the thread.
I don't care WHO he is - this thread is NOT about HIS hobbyhorse.