Thanks. So our best information is the “doubling number” and our best source is #new deaths. As a nation we entered the “exponential phase last week when it was clear what the doubling number was, prior to that day the data was sporadic and there was “no signal in the noise”. I don’t recall which day it was but if you look at #new deaths form weeks ago the data was all sporadic. Since then the #number of new deaths has been doubling about every two days. So we are clearly in the “exponential phase” and have been, by definition, in an “epidemic”. Now agreed, new deaths is a lagging indicator but it’s the best we have.
I understand how important new deaths are in deciphering all this. I use the figures Wikipedia posts at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases
It accumulates daily data on deaths and new infections.
And, yes, this figure is very solid. Trying to use other solid data and then using other information that is out there but admittedly inaccurate, sort it and balance it, might be used as a way to predict the future. Pretty standard methodology.