A 100% case fatality rate, for example, doesn’t mean 100% of the people who get infected dies. It means 100% of the people who get infected AND get sick, wind up dying.
This is why this 4% number for Corona is BS as many people get infected and don’t get sick. This is what makes it just the flu, bro, from a death perspective.”
Bullshit.
I know exactly what the definition of CFR is. Dead over resolved for people that contracted the disease during a specific time period. You don’t have to die or recover during the time period, but you do have to do one or the other to get counted.
There is no herd of asymptomatic non-infectious people out there. If there were there would be hotspots all over the country, not just in a handful of cities. The 80/20 stat comes from contact tracing. This is from a source in the mitigation effort. You don’t get to count the mild and asymptomatics twice. Worse. You are effectively multiplying the case count by 3 or 4 times with imaginary friends.
You can’t make up imaginary infected to prop up your failing narrative. But at least you’re at the bargaining stage, now, it seems.
dead/dead+or recovered(resolved cases “one or the other”)
death rate....may start high but will drop “hopefully as more recover. Final mortality rate will be much lower as pestilence ends but how much lower...who can say.
or recovery rate...Recovered/dead + recovered(total resoved cases. May start low but will rise as more recover and less die.
Testing is increasing but it isn’t meaningful for stats as it only shows who may have had the virus for up to 3 weeks and many have had no or very mild disease.
What really tells us if prevalence is increasing will be the sudden uptick for covids related acute hosptializations where there weren’t any going on before or were at a very low level. People may panic thinking their sniffle is covids(and it may be but not serious enough for the hospital) and numbers wiil rush the hospital(usually at oh dark thirty) have to be screened but that is not what I mean.
I mean large numbers in the space of a few days just pouring hospitals having gone into severe dehydration,shock, hypoxia, sepsis and respiratory distress all at once in a given area where there had been little or none before. That’s how you know the covids’ numbers have increased in large percentages in the population(whether tested or untested); that’s when numbers start to be significant. That’s when you know whether your mitigation efforts have succeeded or not.