You make *lots* of assumptions.
First, what makes you think this is “left unchecked”? I see many, many states shutting down.
The rest of your calculations rest on the “left unchecked” assumption.
And the goal is to get the economy running again *and* people be safe. The two are not mutually exclusive, as much as people on both sides want it to be.
By “unchecked”, I mean what will happen if you open things back up and let people go back to work.
The virus is more contagious (higher R0) than the Spanish Flu and will rip through a “back open for business!” population faster than a wildfire through dry brush.
Trump thinks we have problems now? Just open the economy back up, let people go back to work and see what happens.
The problems we have now will look like a nice garden tea party if he is short sighted enough to do that. But, he’s shown pretty much from day one that he is not taking this seriously (even as recently as 3/9 tweeting about flu statistics..my God, how much time we lost in actually getting ahead of this thing).
I don’t expect anyone to be perfect, but Trump was at least 8 weeks late in treating this seriously. And as a result, it’s in every state and growing exponentially. In NY, for example, it’s doubling every 3 days. And that is going to happen in most every state in the next weeks and months.