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I’m neither panicking or virtue signaling. I’m prognosticating to the bets of my ability so I can stay ahead of events as they unfold.

I stocked up beyond my normal dehydrated preparedness supply on things like toilet paper, toothpaste, and more “fresh” and freezer items, in mid-February when everyone was still talking about Shampeachment.

I took my kids out of school weeks ago because, as I told my wife, “Schools are going to get shut down. Let’s get them on a homeschooling program now so we can keep up the pace and have the summer free to go camping.” Plus, we have my high-risk father-in-law living the basement and I didn’t want the kids in school when the infection started spreading there. Two weeks later, the schools shut down.

I predicted that the DOW would go under 20k and the “real bottom” was around 18k when people were pissed it had fallen to 26k.

So this is just a matter of knowing when to beat the chaos. Being ahead of the curve is always helpful. Careful analysis of the situation helps give some insight to what may be coming.

Want another prediction? If this chloroquine + azithromycin treatment fails to produce results, we will see mass looting in CA and NYC within 2-3 weeks (4 as an outlier), quickly spreading to cities like Chicago and Detroit sympathetically. Luckily I don’t live anywhere near there.

I should point out that I decided to split the difference on the market and got back in at 22k. Made that decision when it was at 25k.

So my predictions aren’t always “perfect,” but... that’s why I got back in rather than timing it all the way down to below 20k.