[scouter]

Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I suspect we're closer in our thoughts about this than it might appear on the surface. There will always be differences of opinion on the relative importance of various differences between the outbreak in various countries. You make some good points, but there are others I disagree with.

One point I agree with is this: All we have to go by is what the current numbers tell us.

You then say "Those numbers on the face of it show recoveries outnumbering deaths by a factor of 6 to 1. while that is promising, it is also concerning because the recovery rate is only about a third of the total infected."

Worldwide, that's true. But there's a lot of variation from place to place. Here in the U.S. so far, it's more like 2:1 deaths:recoveries. I don't expect that number to hold, but like I said earlier, even if we assume that there are really 20 times as many recoveries as have been reported, the CFR in the U.S. would still be quite alarming. Instead of being the current astronomical rate of 588/(588+295) = 66.6% (based on current numbers), it would be a "mere" 588/(588+5900) = 9%. I don't find that number very comforting.

[cgbg]

Keep in mind that most humans are not persuaded by data—they are persuaded by emotion.

I am becoming convinced that the numbers won’t matter—what will matter is graphic and terrifying videos of public deaths, country by country.

Then the debate will be over, regardless of what the numbers say.