My understanding is that it is killing 1 to 6 percent of the confirmed cases, not the high percentages you give.
I don’t know how they are getting the closed case stat. Seems they aren’t closing the case or including it in that stat for most if the people who don’t die.
Have seen an article on line that the real Wuhan rate was over 20 percent.
My understanding is that it is killing 1 to 6 percent of the confirmed cases, not the high percentages you give. I don’t know how they are getting the closed case stat. Seems they aren’t closing the case or including it in that stat for most if the people who don’t die. Have seen an article on line that the real Wuhan rate was over 20 percent.
BenLurkin:
Uh...where are you getting your information?
My response:
I'm getting my data from Johns Hopkins and Worldometers. I should have noted that in my original post.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You have to understand the statistic being reported. Please re-read my original post. The CFR of Closed Cases does not include either 1) those who were diagnosed but are still sick, nor 2) those who have the disease but were not diagnosed.
Both statistics are important. But they answer different questions. It's essential to understand the denominator and the question they're trying to answer.
No single statistic tells you the whole story. They each answer a different question, and they each have their strengths and weaknesses. The particular statistic I'm discussing answers this question: If I'm diagnosed with COVID-19, what are my chances of dying? That question can be asked on a worldwide basis, on a local basis. The answer will only be as good as the data. Some very important qualifications it's important to keep in mind with this statistic are 1) it is usually higher than reality because of incomplete testing and/or reporting, and 2) the true CFR can't be known until the epidemic is over, and 3) the CFR changes over time and from place to place.
All that being said, it's not a statistic you see mentioned often, and it fills in some of the blanks of the entire pandemic picture.
“My understanding is that it is killing 1 to 6 percent of the confirmed cases, not the high percentages you give.”
Most of the cases remain unresolved. Can’t count them as wins or losses, yet.
Oh, and it is 9% of confirmed cases in Italy at the moment. Many of the remaining are mild, but many are not. Their HCS collapsed so they aren’t really saving anybody at this point. You’re pretty much on your own.
If they don’t have 10,000 dead in a week it will be a miracle. Pray for a miracle. If they can intervene with HCQ that will count. But if you are too far along, it doesn’t help.