Stop using total cases....it only becomes valid at the end of the pandemic. We use the total of recovered plus the dead which is known as resolved or closed cases while the epidemic is ongoing because it tells us how mitigation is working and of the virulence. You divide the number of dead/completed cases(dead + recovered) to get your running death percentage. The link I gave you has a chart that breaks it down.
The US infection is not declining yet...use the link I gave you. NYc is having more covid cases coming into their hospitals than they can handle. The danger also isn’t merely about a 1-4 percent death rate....it is about the 20 percent of covid patients needing hospitalization with a sudden surge of admissions in addition to all the other sick people already there. And that we will know about in a week or so, whether or not our mitigation strategies will start to cap the numbers of ongoing active cases to keep things manageable or if things go crazy like they are in Italy. If we get a surge of patients going into the hospitals with sudden respiratory distress needing quick ventilation then we are in trouble. Regions with little covid activity I suspect and fear will have patients transported into their regions where beds are being underutilized.
So pray....I’ve been a critical RN for 34 years and I’m used to not letting hopeful sentiment get in the way of looking hard at numbers. The world wide numbers are stark. If the US numbers cap to an ongoing 50000(an equilibrium of active and completed or resolved cases) active cases at a time and stay there for a few months before dropping off...it will be manageable and perhaps they can start relaxing the nation’s economic sphincters by June.
I am very concerned that no one is talking publicly about the potentials for using high dose intravenous Vitamin C for the serious acute respiratory syndrome phase of Covid-19. Last night I spoke with my son who is about to leave for Afghanistan for months. He told me Google is blocking You-Tube videos about Chinese research on using high dosage Vitamin C to save people from the acute respiratory distress of serious Covid-19 infection. I thought he must be wrong, even though being in Special Forces he has access to information I do not. So, today I checked and found that indeed his information appears to be correct. This link provides information and links for further exploring the Covid-19 research efforts. However, I am quoting this article below the link for the critical censorship issue.
“News of vitamin C research for COVID-19 is being actively suppressed
Anyone saying that vitamin therapy can stop coronavirus is already being labeled as “promoting false information” and promulgating “fake news.” Even the sharing of verifiable news, and direct quotes from credentialed medical professionals, is being restricted or blocked on social media. You can see sequential examples of this phenomenon at my Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/themegavitaminman .
Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) has, literally, met with Google and Facebook and other media giants to stop the spread of what they declare to be wrong information. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/14/facebook-google-amazon-met-with-who-to-talk-coronavirus-misinformation.html?__twitter_impression=true
Physician-directed, hospital-based administration of intravenous vitamin C has been marginalized or discredited. Scientific debate over COVID-19 appears to not be allowed.
Ironically, Facebook, blocking any significant users’ sharing of the news of approved vitamin therapy research, is itself blocked in China by the Chinese government. As for the internet, yes, China has it. And yes, it is censored. But, significantly, the Chinese government has not blocked this real news on how intravenous vitamin C will save lives in the COVID-19 epidemic. Here is the protocol as published in Chinese: http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n11-chi.shtml
Medical orthodoxy obsessively focuses on searching for a vaccine and/or drug for coronavirus COVID-19). While they are looking for what would be fabulously profitable approaches, we have with vitamin C an existing, plausible, clinically demonstrated method to treat what coronavirus patients die from: severe acute respiratory syndrome, or pneumonia.
And it is available right now.”
One article downgrading the possible value of high Vitamin C treatment spoke of potentially “fatal” doses of C. The only info I could find on that was for rats. It said 50% (LD50) of rats were killed by almost 1/2 ounce of C for a 2 pound rat. Multiplied to human terms, that means 2 pounds of Vitamin C for a large woman or small man would kill 1/2 the group. Can you imagine even swallowing 2 pounds of Vitamin C??? A poison control group said they know of NO deaths caused by C.
I’m a data analyst. You can’t use recovered cases because it is meaningless in this case because you can catch it again. Recovered just means you have re-entered the subject population. You use confirmed vs deaths because deaths are a subset of confirmed. Deaths and recovered are mutually exclusive. You cannot be dead and recovered so it doesn’t make sense to use them in a ratio.