You need to do a little more homework on the numbers—I am not talking about “stragglers” here.
The disease was spreading exponentially for a month.
Most of the people who have the disease (and will require hospitalization, and the percentage of those that will die) are not showing symptoms yet.
That is because half of the new cases are from the last three days (or so) of significant spread.
I suspect anyone who was exposed three days ago isn’t even ill yet.