[cgbg]

Lookner:

RE: Ottawa Senators player testing positive for coronavirus

“It is believed that multiple Senators players are ill and awaiting test results to determine how many have been infected.”

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1240166357620207617

[cgbg]

So, I thought I would run through the "teenage driver" scenario using as a test case the 435 members of the House of Representatives.

They are a large enough sample size so that the numbers should be in range.

There will also be news coverage when they positive, when they get sick, the severity of their sickness, and of course if any die.

First acceleration (unintentional imho):
5% get infected = 22 members will ultimately test positive
15% hospitalization = 3 are hospitalizations
Maybe one death out of these, if one of the real old timers gets it.

We should be seeing these numbers in the next month or so, if the model is correct.

Then we should see minimal activity until the first victory declaration, "all clear" is sounded.

Then expect to repeat these numbers (with a one month lag time) until we slam on the brakes again...