If it continues to spread at that rate, then we will hit 100,000,000 on April 23.
If, on the other hand just one person is prevented from getting the virus today, then on April 17, there will be about 3,500 fewer cases, and assuming a Case Fatality Rate of just 2%, that will save 70 lives.
That, folks, is why we have to take action now. Unfortunately, taking action when it is most effective will always be seen as overreaction.
One of the first things I learned in my epidemiology courses is that those in decision-making positions tend to delay taking action until it's too late. This time they're doing it right. The problem, from their perspective, is that if they take action early and it works, when the disaster doesn't develop, everyone says "See, he overreacted!", when, in fact, it was his action that prevented the disaster from developing. If, on the other hand, he takes action too late, then everyone properly says he blew it. Either way, he loses. And then there's the normalcy bias, which is strong in politicians, and apparently even stronger in you.
I liken it to those who think that just because Y2K wasn’t a big deal, that companies overreacted, when in fact that “overreaction” was why Y2K wasn’t a big deal.
There’s been no evidence of it actually doubling in infections in less than 3 days. These numbers right now are mostly a function of the extreme undertesting here getting less extreme—and so making the growth greater.
Still, exponential increases are significant and startling.
“If it continues to spread at that rate, then we will hit 100,000,000 on April 23.”
Confirmed cases will increase with wider testing, artificially increasing the rate.
Still, assume your sentence above is correct.
In your experience has any epidemic spread like that?
What you’re saying is mathematical but not necessarily realistic biologically.
People said similar things about China.
Can you tell us what percentage of tested people are positive and if that rate is changing?
“See, he overreacted!”, when, in fact, it was his action that prevented the disaster from developing. If, on the other hand, he takes action too late, then everyone properly says he blew it. Either way, he loses. And then there’s the normalcy bias, which is strong in politicians, and apparently even stronger in you.”
The exact opposite is also true.