Posted on 03/17/2020 8:36:27 AM PDT by Mariner
Yikes.....to that chart.
Who is this guy, that did the chart?
Any idea/info? Thanks much.
So you’re saying that this virus could not possibly have gotten into the ventilation systems of cruise ships or nursing homes??
Is that different than googling ‘Covid Temperature”?
:-)
I’m keeping an eye on stats for my state on their Site, which includes the nations stats including deaths.
So far my area has no confirmed cases though there are three counties below mine reporting them. So it’s just a matter of time.
Ping to the bioweapon post.
Everybody can suit themselves. I’ve had my say.
I think they’ve all seen my earlier post that I’ve been to the liquor store and are just laying for me... LOL!
Are “abortion clinics” allowed to stay open? They should be repurposed as Chinese Flu testing sites.
20 days x 11 million = 220 million hospital days required, say spread out over the next nine months. 220/9 = 24.4 million hospital days needed per month. We have about 1 million hospital beds in the country, of which 2/3 are normally filled by non-Covid-19 victims. 30 days per month x 1 million hospital beds = 30 million beds nominally available, but only 1/3 really are = 10 million hospital bed days really available. Against a fresh demand of 24.4 million bed days per month.
We have only about a third or half of the hospital beds we’d need if the CoVid-19 demand of those remains steady over the nine months, but the Imperial College of London study shows we instead face two huge spikes in demand, the first in June-July and the second in September October. Those months will be horrid.
Worse, we have only 95,000 intensive care hospital beds, and about 75,000 medical ventilators, against demand for 3.67 million CoVid-19 intensive care beds, most to almost all of whom will require ventilators for some or most of their stay in ICU’s. Assume half of their average 20 days hospitalization is in ICU’s. 10 days x 3.67 million = 36.7 million ICU bed days. But 95,000 ICU beds x 270 = 25.65 maximum available ICU bed days over the nine months. And most of the 25.65 million ICU bed days demand will take place in only 4 months – June-July and September-October.
The Imperial College London study prediction of 1.1 million American dead by the end of this year is very credible. It could easily be 2.2 million dead given that most of the demand for ICU beds will occur during the four months of massive spikes in demand.
"I did some back of the envelope math the other night ..."
“Even though my neighbor’s driveway is less than 10 feet away from my own, and that she has a hacking cough, and that she told me that her coworker returned recently from Spain and went home sick, I can be sure I can’t get the virus in my HVAC from her? “
Hmmm, a bit different than my 50 acres (just kidding). Yes, that’s tight, but having open windows likely invites more of the virons than (mostly) circulating relatively clean air...unless the windows are on the side opposite of the neighbor.
“So you’re saying that this virus could not possibly have gotten into the ventilation systems of cruise ships or nursing homes?? “
Nope - it was DEFINITELY in those systems, but it wasn’t replicating in those systems - it cannot. Instead you had sick people on the boat dumping virons into the constantly re-circulating air, by the ‘boatload’, building up the concentration of the virons higher and higher over the days. As the concentration of virons went higher and higher, more and more people couldn’t fight it off, and got infected.
False positive rates of 80%! Assume for one minute 80% of the cases in other countries are false positives. The only overall point is that testing accuracy is an enormous issue. "
you're making it sound more complicated then it is
I’m just saying that especially in hotspot areas, certain buildings could be infected. Like churches, restaurants, gyms, even grocery stores and offices.
If these places have closed ventilation systems, just walking inside could get you a viral load that you may not survive.
Food for thought.
The 14-20% hospitalization rate is what was Wuhan and Italy were reporting
Yep.
I see that the Navy is readying med ships to offer assistance. Each one has 1,000 beds.
Wondering if they’re heading to NY.
He’s a cardiologist, looks to be an Obamabot, but the numbers appear to be accurate.
f
“Community Infections”?
Also saw where TX Gov Abbott has inacted the TX National Guard.
Not deploying (yet), just activating.
“I’m just saying that especially in hotspot areas, certain buildings could be infected. Like churches, restaurants, gyms, even grocery stores and offices...If these places have closed ventilation systems, just walking inside could get you a viral load that you may not survive.”
A bit different than I see it. I don’t see building being infected, but rather the air in the building. And since the virus only survives for 3 or 4 hours in the air and can’t replicate in the air, once the cause of the virons is removed, that mode of transmission ceases several hours later. Now, could the virons also be on surfaces, active and in quantities able to infect most people? I have no clue on that.
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