The threat, if you go down all data from western countries (tossing Wuhan out)...then you look at who needs to go into hospitals and who likely dies...then you come to this messy fact that is difficult to grasp.
The people in the 6-percent group who ought to be in the hospitals are senior citizens over 65 in frail health, COPD sufferers, the pack-a-day smokers, asthma folks, anyone with a already weakened immune system (TB, HIV, diabetes, etc).
Kids don’t dies from this, and if you watch these interviews (either from Germany or Italy), Kids just describe like a light-form of flu.
So here is our problem, if the infection rate were to go up to 200,000 people in the US weekly developing this, and that 6-percent group needing real hospital care (nurses included), that means 12,000 folks who really need extra help. Toss in the fact that in seven days...another 12,000 folks will arrive, and seven days after that another 12,000 will arrive. The higher the infection rate, the more untrustworthy the care will be.
Another six-to-eight percent of us will have a rough time (a full 10 days of harsh flu-like symptoms) but if we are under 65 and without secondary health issues....we can do well at the house, with a little help from friends, neighbors, or family members. And the rest will just call it a light-bout of flu.
It’s not the end of the world for the bulk of us, but for a small limited number....the risk is significant.
A reasoned analysis which my post should provoke. Thank you.