[cgbg]

Goldman Sachs briefing is correct on many elements but has one major flaw:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/half-america-will-get-sick-here-what-goldman-told-1500-clients-its-sunday-conference-call

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

This is simply false.

Let me explain:

The virus would take six weeks to infect everyone in the US that it could (60% of population) if _no_ effort were made to slow the spread.

To the extent efforts are made to "flatten the curve" that time frame is expanded.

The latest policies by the administration will delay completion of the major part of the curve by several months:

--No large gatherings
--Closing of restaurants, bars and other entertainment venues
--Limitations on travel


etc etc etc

Further measures (such as a ban on domestic travel, closing of all non-essential businesses) would add another couple of months.

These measures are likely imho because the health care system will be overwhelmed if they are not taken.

In addition, the claim that warmer weather will reduce the spread is totally unproven for this disease--that remains an open question at best.

[cgbg]

Of 31 people in town who were tested, 20 were positive, according to the Westport Weston Public Health District.

https://twitter.com/NBCNewYork/status/1239758621963104257

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These are very expensive CT (Fairfield County) areas with lots of commuters to New York City.

Guess how the majority of them get to the city.

Answer: Metro North—the train.

Guess what train station they arrive at each morning.

Answer: Grand Central Station

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Remember a while ago we talked about the first case that commuted to New York City and went through Grand Central Station....

Probably every commuter to that station should be tested—and there are tens of thousands of them every day....CT, NY, NJ.

[metmom]

These measures are likely imho because the health care system will be overwhelmed if they are not taken.

I think that's the whole crux of the matter.

If it hit hard and fast, many more people would die who could be saved with the right medical equipment available.

If there's not enough equipment for all the cases, those late comers die.