These two or three week shutdowns seem silly to me because nothing will get resolved in such a short amount of time.
I expect these initial shutdowns will be extended four weeks and then another four weeks at which point people will say "Screw it. I can't live like this." Things will begin to slowly get back to normal. But, the disease could catch fire again, which I think is probable because "herd immunity" won't be established yet.
The issue isn’t something getting “resolved”, it is, as they say, flattening the curve so our medical system doesn’t break down like Italy’s has, unable to handle all the serious illness and forcing triage as to who gets life-saving care.
Also, the more the curve is flattened, the more time we are buying for better treatments to cure those who do get seriously ill.
What are your thoughts on the proposition that CV has been present in the US for the same amount of time as China, Iran, Italy & Europe? (That is, since the late November, early December 2019 time frame.)
How many flights/day between Asia & California - with hundreds/thousands of passengers - were arriving/departing out of SJC, SFO & LAX before Trump initiated the respective travel bans?
Can you imagine the statisticians and modelers just itching to get some data once testing really gets underway? What if it's determined there are already 500k infected in the US, but for whatever reason we're not experiencing similar illness levels and/or same impact on the medical infrastructure?
Once the history chart begins to be fleshed out, we're going to have a much, much better idea on where the hell the peak of the curve really is. Of course, the contra case would be that we had essentially nil until last month, which means we really ARE in for a shit show 4-6 weeks from now.
we still haven’t effected herd immunity to H1N1. What makes anyone think that there will be herd immunity to a more virulent strain such as Covid?
Lock the virus down. If Junior gives it to his parents, or Cindy home from college gives it to little sister, we find the superspreaders faster than all the testing in the world. Identify and isolate the superspreaders and the risk goes down.