It will almost certainly diminish by summer. There likely be a vaccine by fall.
There is NO chance 22,000 Americans die to to Corona. It's unlikely 12,000 will.
Corona is very little threat to any health person under 60.
In Italy, the average age of death of a Corona victim is 81. They have a much older population there.
The confirmed to case-to-death rate is a mere 0.8 in South Korea. And, as is always the case, there are far more actual cases than confirmed cases. Dr. Mehmet Oz estimates 80% of those that get the virus don't even know they had it.
Nothing justifies the draconian measures being taken that are harming the economy.
South Korea has tested over 200,000 people. There’s not 80% cases in SK that aren’t known.
And the 0.85% in S. Korea, doesn’t acknowedge that most cases are not recovered yet. If you were able track the existing cases, that 0.85% will go up over time. It represents a floor.
Currently it’s actually 75 deaths / 8236 cases = 0.91%. But there are another 59 cases that are currently in serious/critical condition = 0.72%. But also 7024 cases or 85% of the cases aren’t resolved yet.
It’s almost certain the case fatality rate in S.Korea will exceed 1% which makes it 10 times more lethan than the flu.
And if you accept the Nov 17th date, which I’m okay with, you still can’t compare 4 months of Coronavirus to 4 months of the flu. Coronavirus started with a single individual 4 months ago. And it’s had to spread geographically which doesn’t happen overnight. But it is now in 157 countries.
How many deaths we have in the US, depends on our response. The draconian actions we are taking that you claim are unjustified, might be able to contain the deaths at less than 22,000. We don’t know. We do know if it’s allows to spread as fast as it’s been spreading, that today we have 69 deaths, in 2 weeks we have have 700 deaths, in 4 weeks we will have 7000 deaths, in 6 weeks we will have 70,000 deaths.
One factor determining whether we have a 1% death rate or a 6% death rate is whether or not we avoid having our healthcare system overrun. If our doctors have to make the decisions we hear coming out of Italy, then older people will be denied care in favor of younger people. If they have to start choosing, the case fatality rate goes up.
That’s what the “draconian measures” are all about.
The Dutch have reported that half of their cases needing ICU are under 50. And we’ve heard that the average ICU stay is 18 days. Not sure if that’s true. But clearly there are not many fast recoveries from this virus.
The stats out of china do say it’s a small risk to people who are under 60. But we’ve got a 40 year old construction worker in Louisiana in critical condition. A 40 year old police officer in New Jersey in critical condition. A 40 year old marathon runner in critical condition. A 40 year old medical doctor in Seattle in critical condition. A 16 year old girl in critical condition.
There are also reports that of the 15% serious cases, 20% of them have reduced lung function after recovery.
This is still a threat to people under 60. The surgeon general called for ALL ages to social distance themselves. It may not be a high risk to 20 and 30 year olds, but they become spreaders and they will spread it to people who are higher risk.