The only number that matters is how many need an ICU bed/ventilator and do we have enough for everyone who needs one at any given time.
Else it gets ugly, fast.
(don’t have a heart attack, stroke, accident, anaphylactic shock, etc).
Beer Math:
330M Americans.
30% of population sick = 110M
20% of sick serious = 22M
~1M hospital beds in the US
90% occupied = 100K available
22M > 100K
That’s before healthcare staff gets sick. does not account for respirator #s.
Italy battlefield triaging anyone over 60 as YOYO.