SK is almost 2 weeks removed from their "surge" of new cases, and appears to have very nearly stopped the spread. A portion of those 10-14 day old cases are becoming "serious" now, and they are seeing an uptick in deaths, now at about 0.9%. Absent a second outbreak, I suspect their final CFR will be 1.2% to 1.5%. According to their doctors, many of their hospitals have been very close to their limits. I really hope we have good data regarding treatments, anti-viral drugs, etc from those countries ahead of us, and we can implement better strategies than them.
SK's 8K cases would translate to about 53K cases here.
using the released data the fatality rate is now
3.76% worldwide
Bump up by Italy 7.16%
Iran 4.5%
Bump down by SK .89%
China 3.93%
USA 2.05
Not to be a pessimist but until a certain percent of the population is immune, this will come in waves.
If we only knew WHAT, precisely, was a high risk factor...besides age and other conditions.
Because that lawyer in NY isn’t doing too hot I hear and he’s not elderly. IIRC his ‘other condition’ was asthma. LOTS of young people have that as well.
If I knew I wouldn’t get an ICU bed from it, I’d go get it right now and get it over with. I could then be ‘of use’ in the community in lieu of people who hadn’t had it and possibly shouldn’t get it.
“I suspect their final CFR will be 1.2% to 1.5%”
I was hoping it would stay around 0.6%. So sad, but South Korea has contribute a lot for us to learn from.
Thank You South Korea
What is CFR?