[cgbg]

The math on my claim—”more than half the people who have been infected will have no symptoms”.

If the latency period is greater than the doubling period, that is what you get...

Three day doubling period—start at 100 cases:

100 now
three days—200
six days—400

Since the latency period could be as high as a week, even if all 100 folks had a temperature (which they won’t btw) then you would still miss the 300 latent folks showing no temperature.

[cgbg]

In Italy, btw, they just gave up testing medical professionals—if they are not too sick to work, they work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&feature=youtu.be

[Thud]

Everyone on the Diamond Princess was tested for CoVid-19. They knew 300 of the people with potential symptoms had CoVid-10, but expanding the testing to everyone on board produced another 400 without any symptoms. This indicates that your figure for roughly half of CoVid-19 victims being asymptomatic is about right.

Keep in mind that there were three worldwide sweeps of the 1918 Spanish Flu, not one, and that almost all the fatalities occurred during the second and third sweeps. Many areas suffered multiple smaller "pulses" of the 1918 Flu - some had four or five.

700 CoVid-19 victims on the Diamond Princess was 17% of all onboard. Two such pulses over a year with the same contraction rate would produce about the same total proportion of victims (34%) as the 1918 Spanish Flu, which was 500 million people of the 1.4 billion in the world at the time (35.7%).