Doubling every three days takes you to half the population infected by mid April....
I discussed the starting point calculation yesterday—you have to normalize the case rate by the low testing rate, match Italy’s testing rate and you get that the starting point is 50K cases today.
But even if today we only have 10K cases that only adds a week.
There is an emerging story that is being hidden under the carpet by everyone.
New York has passed California for the number of cases, and New York is _not_ reporting the total number of tests.
I suspect (cannot prove at this point) that they are in the process of surrendering (as we saw from Sacramento County yesterday) and can no longer successfully track and trace, particularly within NYC.
That was to be expected because the first case commuted to Grand Central Station.
My views on this subject have been rather obvious and irritating no doubt, but the word of the day is going to have to be:
Quarantine.
Not Voluntary quarantine.
Military Quarantine. Kurt Russell stuff...
I’m sure it’s closer to 50k than 10k.
Still constrained testing and of course many cases asymptomatic or mild.