Maybe it just did go supernova. We'll know in another 500 million years or so.
“Maybe [Betelgeuse] just did go supernova. We’ll know in another 500 million years or so.” [Bloody Sam Roberts, post 9]
Humanity won’t have to wait nearly so long.
Estimates of the distance from Earth to Betelgeuse range from a bit over 400 light years to more than 650 light years.
Distance estimates from Earth to Polaris vary from about 320 light years to more than 430 light years.