ANd yet on a cruise ship with hundreds of people infected, the total transmission rate, after being stuck together with horrible quarantine procedures, was 17%. In other words, over 80% of the people on a ship that was a breeding ground for the disease did not contract the disease, even asymptomatically (410 of the 705 that DID get it were asymptomatic).
Is 17% a big number, or a small number? Did that one doctor cough in his hand, and then shake hands? Did the other doctor wipe his face, or pick up food with his now-infected hands? Did anybody else at the table get it? Anybody else in the conference?
It could be highly contagious, but we don’t know that. We have one really bad case in a nursing home where by their own reports they couldn’t have spread it more if they had been trying to do so, because they did so many things wrong.
“It could be highly contagious, but we don’t know that. “
I think it’s moderately contagious myself. Get in a cab with a vector for 20 minutes, you get it. Shake hands with the same guy, probably not. Talk for a minute with the guy, probably not. Receive a hard drive made it China, definitely not. If it was highly contagious, it would have already hit everyone. Problem is, of course, who and where are the vectors.
As to the ship - I don’t know enough about their HVAC systems to know if they’re zoned. Perhaps it was just one zone that reached the 17%...just don’t know. Hopefully they’ve thought of studying that.
As to the death rate from the ship - 1%, of course, is still very high if it gets widespread (but not a big problem if contained) - but those people were lucky, they got the ICU beds. Obviously people later on won’t be so lucky.
I’m mostly worried about the millions of people who have flown in to the US with virtually no limits or screening (other than China, and that was only partial). Things may get very interesting when big-time testing starts here. Who knows, stocks may even drop a bit!