I’ll stick with my prediction of 10k for the Dow by the time this is over and we SLOWLY start to recover. Most of the effect (75%) will be due to economic hit of losing imports from China and now many other countries. Even people who run our largest corporations have NO IDEA just how dependent on China we’ve become - they think importing from Vietnam protects them, for example, except more than half of everything Vietnam imports comes from...China.
10000 would be worse than the Depression...
What is the best 'anti-fragile' investment for the little guy?
I see this whole Corona Virus as a black swan event and people still don't realize it due to normalcy bias.
We can already see that supply lines are broken, truckers are suffering, cruise lines will never rebound to the levels they enjoyed before this - and they had 110 new cruise ships under construction! Airlines and the hospitality industry is getting clobbered, conventions and concerts are being cancelled... the effect will not be small.
So for an investment to be anti-fragile, it should go up when the market goes down. Here are some that I know of:
The image above shows the three types of investments (or speculations) that you can hold.
Carnival Line Cruises was a very FRAGILE investment - I had wanted to short it but my trading account wouldn't let me. Then it lost 50%.
The ROBUST investment would have been gold which didn't move much in either direction.
The others were Anti-Fragile.