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To: Mount Athos

I think you’re missing a critical point here..

The CFR is # dead / # infected.

It is NOT # dead / # tested.

So, S. Korea testing more people does not matter. It’s still dead / infected. Not dead / tested.

Ergo, the CFR does not go down (as you think it will) unless the number of CONFIRMED infected increase compared to the # dead. And that, AFAIK is not happening in S. Korea or elsewhere.


54 posted on 03/07/2020 2:19:07 PM PST by jstolzen
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To: jstolzen

“I think you’re missing a critical point here..
The CFR is # dead / # infected.
It is NOT # dead / # tested.”

You are completely wrong.

You are the one missing the critical point.

You think the 3.4% death estimate is # dead / # infected.

That isn’t close to true. What you believe is a galaxy away from reality.

The 3.4% figure is actually # dead / CONFIRMED CASES.

There a huge, huge numbers of people who will be infected with coronavirus and never be recognized officially as a “confirmed case”.

People who get minimally sick, and quickly recover, never knew they had it. Maybe they thought they had something else, or maybe they even just thought they were just a little under the weather. People who get sick and stay home and never check in. Nope, none of them in the numbers.

How about the cruise ship comedian who escaped mandatory hotel room quarantine in japan, boarded a flight to USA. He said he felt no shame because he was “sure he didn’t have it” since he didn’t have symptoms. But maybe he was infected and went on to infect an ever going tree of further infections. Most of them not counted by WHO....


57 posted on 03/07/2020 2:32:27 PM PST by Mount Athos
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To: jstolzen

You are panicked & not thinking clearly. How do we define number infected? They have to be tested to know that they are infected. That is the whole point.
Only the very ill are in the pool unless testing is widespread and the milder cases get added to the pool.


76 posted on 03/07/2020 4:15:01 PM PST by JayGalt (You can't teach a donkey how to tap dance. Nemo me impune lacessit!)
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