Apply common sense. Out of approx 125 patients in the nursing home in WA over 25 have died in the last 2.5 weeks.
Do you think a nursing home loses 20 percent of thier patients in 2.5 weeks from a regular flu? They said themselves today in a report the norm over that period would be 3 to 4, not 26.
Thats bad no matter how you look at it. Thats clearly not regular flu. And I dont know about you guys but I dont want to risk catching it and I sure as heck dont want my parents catching it.
Exactly! That’s a 20% (25/125) CFR - but also only a bit higher than the CDC numbers posted up-thread (14.8?%) for those age 80+.
I’m also not yet entirely convinced the CDC truly knows CFR for different age groups at this point. Our sample set is still relatively small, so calculating it has got to be darn near impossible. For that reason, the WHO estimate of 3.4% aggregate is probably the best we have to work with at this point.