Ah, no worries..my apologies!
Yeah there’s a huge problem with those numbers.
When they test for coronavirus, are they doing random samples of the population? Not at all.
Are they testing all those who have symptoms of Coronavirus?
No...
Have you seen how few tests have been done in these countries? I think you might be really shocked how few.
The people who are getting tested are often those who are really sick, or have very strong reason for thinking they might be (they just got off a cruise ship full of sick chinese).
So if you’re going to be alarmist and say omg death rate is 4%, consider that there might be huge numbers of undiagnosed cases throwing your numbers wayyy off.
My number of .5% is from south korea, which has the most extensive, drive through testing. But even this is not a random sample. People self select for these tests, and even if you show up they will not test you unless an interview shows you have reason to suspect you might have it (travel history + symptom).
But in reality disease vectors mean many people can get it indirectly through others and have it when they don’t even suspect it.
So even my .5% estimate is probably grossly exaggerated, which i admit in my post when i call my numbers worst case.
i might continue in a second post later.