Replies

Things to watch for soon:

1. The rate of new cases in China is supposedly leveling off.
They have just over 80,000 cases nationwide, with 3,000 deaths.
However these numbers can be suspect, because the Chinese government has good reason to under-report the numbers. Since China has had the longest exposure to the course of COVID-19,their experience may help us predict ours. Notice also, that reinfections of supposedly “recovered cases” is occurring. The last I find, over 70 million people remain in quarantine in China. The economic effects are disastrous.

2. Italy has had an explosion of new cases this week—so much so, that if the present trend continues, their health care system will flatline in about two weeks. It was just announced that northern cities are undergoing quarantine.

3. Iran has been hardest hit so far, and why that is, the reasons are unclear. Their numbers show 145 dead, but the opposition says that over 1,800 have died. Their healthcare system is not capable of handling this kind of pandemic.

4. To my knowledge, we have never had a quarantine of an entire large city in US history. We are just beginning to start the ramp-up period of the cycle other countries have experienced. The burden on our healthcare system will become severe over the next month,as this disease follows an exponential course. There could be major disruptions to work,school,supply chains(including food), public events being cancelled,etc. The course of the disease will peak in another 4-6 weeks, and hopefully abate after that with the warmer weather. But it may come back in the fall with a vengeance. Already the media is trying to paint this as Trump’s Katrina. The Left wants death and chaos as they think this will help them win in November.