Being a physicist then you must understand that it is likely the study cohort you continually site is insufficiently powered to draw conclusions. That is called standard science. Can we at least agree that your numbers based on you analysis is worst case scenario. I think that would be a fair interpretation.
Absolutely, all else being equal. And, hopefully, they are not "my number" but a reasonable representation by those who collect these numbers of what is really going.
I would like to believe that with sufficient attention, we can control the spread so that cases that need intensive treatment do not overwhelm our medical facilities, and that with enough time we will develop better diagnostics, good vaccines and improved treatment regimes and protocols.
I have a lot of faith in the medical science community in the US.
I am an optimist, but I don't come across as one because I am of the class of optimist that believe you have to drive a truck over obstructionists who can't get out of the way.