Its a good question. The Chinese are also geopolitically speaking loathe to have something that would reflect poorly on the state. If you are asking my opinion, I think that it likely is a leaked bioweapon that is not ready for primetime. Using your vein of questioning, perhaps they used their own people as test subjects — I would not put it beyond the Chinese Government. On the other hand, perhaps this reveals that its healthcare system is not the glorious system it is purported to be. Whatever the reason, China is not forthcoming because it would not be honorable for them to admit problems, inferiority in treatment, or an illegal biowarfare program. Truly, I think we are asking the wrong question here. I think the question we should be asking would be — is this an intentional act.
That being said, this is my opinion only. I am able to admit the difference between my opinion and statistical fact...
That’s a thoughtful answer.
The questions of intention vs. accident, and also morbidity of the virus, are of course, at the top of the list.
Your mention of seropositivity across the population, coupled with statistics on known cases is a gold standard of assessment that can’t be done at present. We know there are people that are asymptomatic, or so mildly affected that they think they’ve got something else rather than the coronavirus.
On the other hand, the US government is pulled in different directions. Not counting those who want to make political hay of this (e.g., Schumer et al), there is the need to strike the balance between panic and action. For example, if I were in government, I’d be ramping up mask production (as they are with 3M), while at the same time discouraging citizens from using them, since a) they’re first needed for the definitely sick and the professionals that treat them, and b) we’d want to minimize panic as long as possibe, and hoarding. So, its not clear yet what is really happening.
As to whether the release in Wuhan is intentional, semi-intentional, or accidental, I have a few thoughts, which tend to lean towards the accidental. As you probably know, there are articles which have focused on an particular receptor, ACE2, I believe, which is prominent in lung tissue. According to what I read (not a doctor, more of an engineer by training) there are a half-dozen genetic variants which increase the susceptibility of lung cells to attachment by this corona-virus, and they are more prevalent in Asians than in Europeans.
If I were designing and testing a deliberate biowarfare pathogetn, I’d try to make it attach more aggressively to non-Asians than my own population. On the other hand, if I were experimenting with a vaccine to a biowarfare pathogen, I would test it out on my own population. Maybe that happened, and if so... oops. That’s the semi-intentional category.
The unintentional category includes accidental release from the P4 lab, or some sort of incompetence on the part of the bio-lab (of a lower security category) known to be only a few hundred meters from the wet market. One theory was that a bat test subject was spirited out and resold. Maybe.
My theory, based on (IIRC) a comment by Heinlein, is that it is unwise to attribute to conspiracy that which can occur by accident or error. But, I have my own corollary: In the rare case when something is caused by a conspiracy, the details of that conspiracy are often worse than anything you could have imagined.