The flu kills 0.1%.
The US at last report had 68 cases of Coronavirus and 1 death from it. That’s a 1.5% rate. And only 7 of the 68 have recovered, so we might have more deaths in that group. Hope not.
Do the math 1.5%/.01% = 15 times more likely. But that’s a better experience than most other nations with more than few cases have seen.
This is an irresponsible statement. The death rate cannot be calculated because the true N of cases is not know. On a series of 68 cases when talking of a known (at least recorded) 80,000 + cases suggests that this subseries is insufficiently powered to make comment on true rate.
So this is fear mongering. In order to truly understand the statistics consider the following:
Population of Wuhan Provence = 11.9 MILLION
Total Cases in Wuhan Province = 79,251 Cases
Population Incidence - 0.6%
Population Death Rate - 0.02%
The problem is that people (apparently you included) are reporting death rate on confirmed cases. As a physician if I see the second case of influenza in my critical care unit and he or she dies is the death rate in fact 50%? This is the argument you are using.
The fact of the matter is N of cases reported is a subset of the true number of cases. As such these are absolute worse case scenarios. In a population center of 11 million people, a virus that achieves on 0.6% incidence is by definition not all that virulent. So the real question is what is the true story of this?
I respectfully submit that while we should always prepare for outbreaks, this outbreak is being sensationalized. Further, every 7 - 8 years influenza undergoes a genetic shift (Avian, H1N1, Swine are the last three) which causes a world wide pandemic. Is this a genetic shift of seasonal corona virus (SARS - MERS - CoVID 19) It appears to follow a similar timeline.
Prepare, don’t panic. And thank God you live in the American Health care system which is still the very best in the world
There’s a helluva lot of statistical data documenting flu mortality because that class of viruses has been around and studied for many, many years.
The new one has been around only for a few months, and it’s not yet known how many cases haven’t been reported because the symptoms were not serious enough for the victim to seek medical care, or there were no symptoms at all.
So, it’s impossible at this point to say with any certainty what the death rate for this one will eventually turn out to be.
You have literally no clue what the mortality rate is. You are using shit data and stating it as fact. Until/unless a wide serosurvey is conducted the number of cases is 100% unknown thus the mortality rate CANNOT BE CALCULATED.
Do the math 1.5%/.01% = 15 times more likely. But that’s a better experience than most other nations with more than few cases have seen."
This latest iteration of coronavirus is so new, and the vast majority of the data is very suspect.
Haven't we been told over and over again, that the test kits are (1) in scarce supply and (2) not very reliable?
Can we say with 100% certainty that there are only 68 cases in the U.S.? No, of course not. There just as easily could be 5,000 with the vast majority asymptomatic. That would be a 0.02% death rate. Far lower than the "common" flu.
Even China's alleged number of infected are almost certainly grossly under reported. Why? Because most people aren't counted when they don't go to the hospital or local clinic. The numbers reported are "confirmed."
The real danger to our country is not Covid-19 itself....it's the fear, panic and hysteria that will be the problem. Specifically, to our financial markets and the economy as a whole.
Your math assumes that all infected persons have been identified. They have not. There are likely hundreds or thousands who are infected and don’t even know it because they are asymptomatic. That means one death out of hundreds or thousands. And the deceased was medically compromised. Calm down.