I’d guess some of both.
The track record of how infectious COVID-19 is in absence of draconian containment measures is fairly well established — and if we need more data from “fairly decent” and most likely “honest reporting” countries, Italy and S. Korea are providing it.
That’s why I believe South Korea is the real bell-weather.
I’m looking especially at the Seoul area, as that goes, I believe is how this will go around the globe.