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To: Paul R.

I think you mis-read my numbers.

35% of components (not necessarily parts) are sourced from China.

80% of the 35% are made in the provinces that are locked down.

.80 x .35 = (roughly) 30%. (exactly 28%)

My point is that a lot of this stuff is replaceable (you can get an aluminum screw just about anywhere.) If that part is the mold injected front panel for the car...that might be more complicated.

The Bloomberg article was just putting out numbers—it did not get into much detail.

Of course it is case dependent. My examples (parts) are hypothetical.

But I am sure there is some stock analyst who has been crunching these numbers and some supply chain guy who is trying to find alternative suppliers.

This is the problem with single sourcing for the best price.


573 posted on 02/24/2020 10:43:50 AM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: Vermont Lt

I think you mis-read my numbers.

35% of components (not necessarily parts) are sourced from China.

80% of the 35% are made in the provinces that are locked down.


do you have any info on Castings..as in steel and cast Iron foundries? China is a huge supplier as is South Korea

No foundries= no parts for car engines or Caterpillar tractors and such


578 posted on 02/24/2020 10:54:08 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: Vermont Lt

No (NOT trying to get into an argument here!), my “80%” is looking at it entirely differently.

I just looked this up: (On the high end of consumer products) Toyota says an average car uses 30,000 individual parts.

https://www.toyota.co.jp/en/kids/faq/d/01/04/

Now, of course a lot of these, like the screw you mentioned, will be used in multiples - some in pretty decent quantities. But I’m betting there are at least 1000 different parts in an average car. Probably more like 5000. Even some of the screws are “custom” (may or may not really need to be). But - let’s go with 1000 different parts. (300 of this screw, one of that panel, 4 of that ring = “3 different parts”.)

So, even if the car is only 28% Chinese parts (by number of different parts, as opposed to, say, weight), that’s 280 different Chinese parts, a lot of them custom (for that mfgr., if not the car model). The vast majority have to be installed “when they have to be installed in production.” Any one of that majority of the 280 can shut some aspect of production down until supply can be re-established.

Just for fun, where does the mfgr. put all the other parts that ARE still en route, but can’t be run when they come in?


604 posted on 02/24/2020 12:15:03 PM PST by Paul R. (The Lib / Socialist goal: Total control of nothing left wort h controlling.)
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