My experience (300+ employee company) was that particularly just after CNY, 60 days from shipment from China to actually putting parts on the production line was not unusual. Might be different for the big players, IDK. We allowed for it.
I guess the question right now might be: How is daily import activity at US ports?
Also, a lot of Chinese factories producing “simple” component parts are highly automated.* They might not be too affected until or if the maint. staff is needed and doesn’t show up — but it looks like now some regions are going back to work, virus or no. We’ll see how that holds up...
*We tend to think of these Chinese factories as populated with hordes of sweatshop employees working on dirt floors, but, truth is, some of those factories are nothing of the sort, and, damn impressive.
Anyway, I would expect supply chain problems to develop a bit more gradually & sporadically than some would think. April could be “interesting”. After that, warmer weather should help. A lot depends on whether the vendor countries just decide to work and accept their human losses. After all, staying shut down might cost more lives than the virus, eventually...
Great reply, thanks.
But does China have control over supplies sufficient to stop production for a whole ‘class’ of production?
Yeah, a specific company could be subject to their whim. But a whole field of production?
Sorry that I’m not being clearer.
“Anyway, I would expect supply chain problems to develop a bit more gradually & sporadically than some would think. April could be “interesting”. After that, warmer weather should help. A lot depends on whether the vendor countries just decide to work and accept their human losses. After all, staying shut down might cost more lives than the virus, eventually...”
I agree with your summary and have thought the same. A lot of the problems will be downstream. I worry about my washing machine. Works ‘fine’ now (by its standards), but I’ve fixed it in the past (same for dish washer and refrigerator) and could order parts. If they start to break in a few months, maybe hand-washing starts.
Same for our factories, which, I’m sure, all rely on China in some way, probably many ways. They’ll continue to work, for a while...