NIKK..This great thread was posted by Jane.
Karim ....(Senior Fellow @CarnegieEndow ; Currently writing a book for @AAKnopf ; Adjunct professor @Georgetown ; Former YGL)
1. No man in the world was directly involved in more conflicts, in more countries, over a longer period than Qassem Soleimani. His death is a HUGE loss for an Iranian regime that's actively fighting 3 cold/proxy wars-with America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia-that could all turn hot 1:16 PM · Jan 3,2020
2. As Iran's undisputed military commander, Soleimani built a Shia foreign legion that played an indelible role in the region’s bloodiest conflicts, including Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Though he was never going to die a natural death, his personality cult left no clear successors.
3. Trump’s inaction after numerous Iranian attacks throughout 2019—against regional oil tankers, a US drone, and Saudi Aramco—led Khamenei to believe, understandably, that Trump was all bluster. Khamenei's open taunting of Trump proved a miscalculation: Quote Tweet
Khamenei.ir · Jan 1 That guy has tweeted that we see Iran responsible for the events in Baghdad & we will respond to Iran. 1st: You can’t do anything. 2nd: If you were logical —which you’re not— you’d see that your crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan… have made nations hate you.
4. Soleimani wasn't a US ally in the fight against ISIS. His complicity in Assad's mass displacement/murder of millions of Syrians (including via repeated chemical weapons attacks), and patronage of Iraq's violent Shia militias fueled the Sunni radicalism that helped spawn ISIS.
5. Soleimani was a polarizing figure in Iran: Beloved by the regime (both hardline and “moderate” factions), admired by zealous Persian/Shia nationalists for his fight against Arabs/Sunnis, and loathed by many Iranians tired of living under a police state: Quote Tweet
Masih Alinejad 🏳️... IMPORTANT: For many Iranians Qassem Soleimani was a warmonger who caused massive casualties in Syria. He was no hero to average Iranians who chanted against the country’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas 1/
6. One senior US official told me, “it was important to show Iran we own escalation. If they kill one of our men we can kill 30 of theirs. If they attack our embassy we can take out their military commanders”. For US military officials who served in Iraq, Soleimani was enemy #1
7. The predictions of today mean little; the impact of Soleimani's death will take years to play out. Iranians warn of more bloodshed, while many Syrians and Iraqis are rejoicing that the man they hold directly responsible for countless civilian casualties is no longer around
8. While many are predicting WWIII, the last 40 years of Iran’s history reflect that what’s paramount for the Islamic Republic is its survival. Tehran can ill-afford a full-blown war w/ the US while facing onerous economic sanctions and internal tumult, especially w/o Soleimani
9. What’s more likely is sustained proxy attacks against US interests/allies regionally and even globally. Iran has a long history of such attacks in Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America, with mixed success; regime apparatchiks are already telegraphing:
“If I was in the UAE, I would leave now. If I’m American in #Iraq, I would leave now. If I’m an American in any part of South East Asia, I would leave immediately.”
Words of warning (threats?) from Iran based Prof Mohammad Marandi via @AJEnglish
10. As usual, Ayatollah Khamenei must careful calibrate his reaction. A weak response risks losing face, an excessive response risks losing his head. Khamenei is Trump's most consequential international adversary in 2020: https://time.com/5691642/iran-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-trump/…
10. As usual, Ayatollah Khamenei must careful calibrate his reaction. A weak response risks losing face, an excessive response risks losing his head. Khamenei is Trump's most consequential international adversary in 2020: https://t.co/h7eso0Nfcg… pic.twitter.com/nKQ4Rz9s6c— Karim Sadjadpour (@ksadjadpour) January 3, 2020