Yes it was about 100%. Davis was not going to allow Sumter to be resupplied under any circumstance by anyone. Lincoln could have sent a troop of Brownie Scouts in open canoes with nothing but hardtack and coffee. Davis would have ordered Beauregard to reduce Sumter by force before the girls could get to it.
Thank you. So what is the point of going into "if they were resisted"? Everyone on both sides knew that they could just skip over that part and go straight to using force.
They could make a formality of asking "are you going to resist"? and the answer would have been "Yes." And then they would have went straight to plan "B", which was to open fire.
So yes, Lincoln sent those ships with orders that virtually guaranteed they would open fire on the Confederates.