What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?

Vanity | 9/1/2019 | Self

[scrabblehack]

What are the GFS and CMC ensembles?

How do they differ from Model Track Guidance?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_gefs_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_geps_latest.png

[NELSON111]

Not sure if anyone addressed this but here is what happened: the models began the shift east when the GIV flights began dropping dropsounds and that data started getting ingested into the model runs.

Weather models work like this:the more data you have, the better they are. We don’t have a lot of data over the oceans so they are just ok there to determine ridges and trofs. When we add a lot of data points-they get better.

[riverdawg]

“ALL models are wrong, though some are useful.”

Attributed to the statistician George Box, of Box-Cox and Box-Jenkins fame.

[JudgemAll]

It is about to in Florida, will go.right accross like Mathew... the winds cannot push it North until it is in the open in the Guldf imo

[JudgemAll]

Was it Eisenhower who said all plans are vital but it never goes as planned

[ArcadeQuarters]

I read about chaos theory in Scientific American many years ago. They showed how chaos generators were everywhere, using the timing of a dripping faucet to generate chaotic patterns for example. The Computer Recreations column also had some fun little projects on chaos theory. Interesting and fun.